Jenkins & Jones Book a call

Prediction-market data infrastructure

Every tick.
Every round.
Timestamped.

Jenkins & Jones records US event-contract order books and the spot markets that settle them, second by second, and proves it: daily hash manifests, Bitcoin-anchored timestamps and a public gap register.

Book a 20-minute callRead What Doesn’t Work

No trade recommendations. No picks. Data, research and engineering.

Proof, not promises

Proof, not promises

8.5Mrows recorded on Oct 29Public tables only, from that day's export
63.1Mpublic trades analysed60 days of tape, Aug 27 2026 to Oct 26 2026
5,192strategy variants tested0 cleared the bar on data they were not designed on
4days hashed and stamped on BitcoinDaily SHA-256 manifest with an OpenTimestamps proof

What we do

Three things, done in the open.

01

Data

Order books, trades and reference prices from US event-contract venues and the spot exchanges behind them, recorded around the clock since October 26, 2026, with receive time next to event time.

What we record 02

Integrity

Gap registers, settlement reconciliation, stale-feed and basis checks, timestamp proofs. We run them on our own recorders every two minutes and build them for venues, brokers and data teams.

Services 03

Research

5,192 strategy variants, one registry, one multiple-testing bar, and a 15-page report on why none of them survived.

Research

Research report · v1.0

What Doesn’t Work

We logged 5,192 strategy variants on 5-minute Bitcoin prediction markets in one registry, raised the bar with every try and scored the survivors forward on rounds nobody had seen. None cleared it. The report shows how we tested, which families failed and why, the nine simulator bugs that nearly fooled us, and the two things that still hold up.

variants logged
5,192
bar after that many tries
t ≥ 4.27
cleared it out of sample
0
Get the report

Free. 15 pages. By Zion Boggan, October 30, 2026.

The bar rises with every idea testedOne-sided Bonferroni t-statistic needed at a 5% family-wise error rate, rising from 1.64 for one test to 2.39 for 6, 2.94 for 30, 3.92 for 1,152 and 4.27 for all 5,192 variants.2.03.04.01101001k10kt = 2, the usual “significant” line6 lanes · 2.3930 · 2.94one sweep, 1,152 · 3.92all 5,192 · t ≥ 4.27Variants tested (log scale)t needed
Figure 1. One-sided Bonferroni threshold at a 5% family-wise error rate. A t of 2 is the usual line; after 5,192 tries the bar is 4.27.
The price is already a good forecastMarket mid-price three minutes before close versus how often that side won: 10 cents won 6.4%; 30 cents won 20.0%; 50 cents won 44.6%; 72 cents won 73.8%; 90 cents won 91.5%.0%0¢25%25¢50%50¢75%75¢100%100¢price = outcomePriced 10¢, won 6.4%Priced 30¢, won 20.0%Priced 50¢, won 44.6%Priced 72¢, won 73.8%Priced 90¢, won 91.5%Market price 3 minutes before closeShare that won
Figure 8. Later chronological half, 357 quote-covered Polymarket US rounds, binned by mid-price 3 minutes before close. Not a strategy result: it is how often the priced side won.

How we work

The method is the product.

  1. 1

    Pre-register, then look

    Before a candidate is scored on new data, its rule, parameters and the hash of its code are written to a file that is never edited again.

  2. 2

    Count every try

    Every rule, parameter set and family goes into one registry, and the significance bar is set over the whole registry, not one study.

  3. 3

    Fill like the market would

    Every simulated order arrives late, walks the recorded book, pays the taker fee, and a miss counts as a miss.

Services

Start small. Prove it. Then build.

See services
Entry

Data & Integrity Audit

$2,500

One pipeline, five checks, a written report and a gap register you keep. About two weeks.

 Venues

Settlement-Integrity Review

from $15,000

Four weeks on your settlement-window data under NDA. A report you can show a regulator.

 Ongoing

Monitoring retainer

from $3,000/mo

Feed health, gap registers and settlement checks on your data, every day, with a monthly report.

Who runs it

A person signs off every change.

Jenkins & Jones is run by Zion Boggan, a CompTIA Security+ and Microsoft SC-200 certified security analyst, with an agent-run research stack that checks and repairs its own pipelines. A person signs off every change.

About Jenkins & Jones